Inventory constraints, higher interest rates and soaring home prices have been taking their toll on the housing market of late across New England. 

But the second-home market in traditional vacation regions of New England, such as on Cape Cod and New Hampshire’s Lakes region, seems to be experiencing a greater shift away from the buying frenzy seen after the onset of the pandemic in 2020 and before interest rates began to rise in early 2022, according to data and anecdotal evidence. 

In New Hampshire’s lakes and far-north regions, a slowdown of sorts was evident last year. 

In Carroll County, home to the northern shore areas of Lake Winnipesauke, single-family house sales fell 13 percent last year, while sales in Belknap County, host of the southern shore areas of the lake, were down 7.6 percent. 

The Carroll and Belknap sales declines were considerably greater than the statewide sales fall of 4.8 percent in 2024, according to data from The Warren Group, owner New Hampshire’s Registry Review and Boston’s Banker & Tradesman. 

“We’ve gone through the full COVID cycle like most everyone else – going up and then down,” said Randy Parker, owner of Maxfield Real Estate in Wolfeboro. 

New Hampshire’s biggest sale and price swings last year occurred in the state’s least populated and northern-most county, Coos, where single-family homes sales last year fell by 27.8 percent, the largest drop in New Hampshire. 

Meanwhile, median single-family prices increased by only 1.7 percent in Coos County, to $232,000, the smallest annual price increase in the state in 2024, according to data. Statewide, median single-family home prices rose by 10.39 percent in 2024 in New Hampshire, ending the year at $485,0000, according to The Warren Group. 

Prior to the early 2022 interest rate hikes, Coos County saw some of the greatest sales and price gains in New Hampshire, as people snapped up relatively affordable properties in the remote and scenic northern-most area of the state. 

“People are still buying, but it’s nothing like the fever pitch of a few years ago,” said Matt Martel of RE/MAX Northern Edge in Berlin. “It has definitely slowed down, no doubt.” 

Not Just NH – Slowdown Signs on Cape Cod 

On Cape Cod, the sale and price numbers are not as clear cut as they are in New Hampshire – though other data suggests a slowdown is most definitely underway on the Cape. 

Across Massachusetts, sales of single-family homes increased last year by 2.9 percent compared to 2023. 

But in Barnstable County – or mainland Cape Cod – single-family sales were up 4.1 percent, while sales on Nantucket were up 10.2 percent. 

Then again, single-family sales on Martha’s Vineyard (Dukes County) were down 6.6 percent last year compared to 2023, more than twice the statewide rate, data shows. 

Almost needless to say, single-family prices in Barnstable, Nantucket and Dukes counties were up last year by 7.5 percent, 10.8 percent, and 7.5 percent, respectively, roughly in line with the statewide median single-family price increase of 7.9 percent. 

But other data and anecdotal evidence indicates a market change is indeed under way on the Cape. 

Katie Clancy, a sales vice president at Williame Raveis Cape Cod, noted that homes are sitting on the market longer these days on Cape, indicating a softening in the market. 

‘The Market’s Definitely Shifting’ 

According to data from the Cape Cod & Islands Association of Realtors, single-family home for sale remained on average 41 days on the market in 2024, up 17 percent from 2023 and up 41 percent since 2022. 

“The market is definitely shifting,” said Clancy. “It’s still a seller’s market, but buyers are more discerning. They’re not bidding willy-nilly anymore. They’re not manic like they were a few years ago.” 

Joan Witter, a real estate agent with Compass-Witter & Witter in Osterville, agreed with Clancy that homes are sitting longer on the market these days on the Cape, due largely to overpricing of properties by sellers. 

In particular, she noted there seems to be a softening in the demand for homes priced at $3 million and up.  

“It’s not nearly as crazy as it was a few years ago,” she said of luxury home sales and prices. “COVID caused some really insane prices.” 

Still, Witter she said the market for single-family homes priced between $1 million to $2 million remains “very strong, very competitive,” a submarket that largely accounts for her having her “best year ever,” in terms of dollar volume in 2024 

Real estate agents stress that it’s always difficult to separate second-home sales from primary-home sales anywhere in the U.S., including on Cape Cod, where an increasing number of people now live year-round. 

Still, Redfin reported late last year that mortgage locks for second homes decreased during this past summer by 13.1 percent across the nation, falling to an eight-year low.  

That tumble was twice as big as the decline for primary-home mortgage locks, Redfin reported. 

Economic Uncertainty Holding Buyers Back 

Daryl Fairweather, an economist at Redfin, said she didn’t have updated figures on second-home mortgage locks.  

But she said her hunch is that there’s been no major change in recent months. 

“The second-home market is not as strong as the primary-home market,” she said. “[Second] homes are optional for people. It’s a luxury. It’s not something most people really need.” 

She said the second-home market probably won’t substantially change as long as interest rates remain at today’s higher levels, compared to pre-2022 historically low rates.  

She also noted economic uncertainty is also hampering the second-home market in general. 

Despite various challenges, real estate agents on the Cape say they’re anticipating an improving real estate market in 2025.  

“I think it’s going to be a good year,” said Maggie Tomkiewicz, a broker at Gibson Sotheby’s International Realty in Dartmouth, Massachusetts. “The market is still strong in our area despite the low inventory. Demand is high.” 

But that doesn’t mean things will return to their pre-2022 levels.  

“The frenzy we saw a few years ago is over,” Tomkiewicz said. “It was crazy then. It doesn’t exist anymore.”