The spread of the coronavirus could lead to permanent changes in commercial real estate, including increasing reliance on remote working, online shopping and medtech integration, JLL predicts.
In a report on short- and long-term effects of the pandemic on global property markets released Wednesday, JLL said investors are likely to shift to defensive assets such as multifamily residential and office properties with credit tenants, at the expense of the hotel and retail sectors.
“The living sectors, particularly multifamily, tend to have more defensive characteristics, benefitting from stable income streams and the ability to actively maintain rents to limit void periods,” said the report by Ben Breslau, JLL’s chief research officer, Americas, and nine other JLL researchers and economists.
Here are the report’s takeaways on various property sectors:
OFFICE: Operational resilience will be a long-term focus for real estate decision-makers as they seek to respond quickly to similar future events. Co-working operators may be at risk if members cut short-term contracts. Landlords are advised to concede small points in lease negotiations to ensure deals are executed. Long-term demand for remote working and collaboration technologies will grow, but rising employment in the affected sectors will outweigh impact on demand.
HOTELS AND HOSPITALITY: Occupancy rates will fall the most in locations with a high proportion of international visitors, but domestic locations accessible by vehicles and public transportation may benefit. “There is potential for a fairly rapid rebound if the virus is contained in short order,” the report states.
RETAIL: Protecting cash flow is crucial for retailers, who may seek temporary rent relief from landlords. Retailers with robust online infrastructure could benefit long-term, continuing the trend shifting toward the omni-channel retail model.
INDUSTRIAL AND LOGISTICS: The outbreak may accelerate use of automation at the expense of human labor, while the move to online shopping, particularly for groceries, could increase demand for logistics space. Manufacturers may shift toward domestic sourcing.
LIVING SECTORS: Developers will have to develop mitigation protocols reducing the risk of transmission, given the recent trend toward higher-density living and increasing amenity spaces. Multifamily benefits from stable income streams, but models such as student housing, coliving and senior living/health care facilities face risks.
While acknowledging the uncertain trajectory of the outbreak, JLL said $330 billion in available capital could pave the way for a recovery.
“There is a record level of dry powder and pressure to deploy capital, and this will ensure that investor appetite stays strong. Once the situation stabilizes, and investors have greater clarity, pent-up demand is expected to be released in the second half of the year,” the report predicts.