As the state emerges from its COVID-19 shutdown, it looks like the real estate market may be doing the same.
While the numbers of new listings and total listings statewide are far below 2019 figures, both statistics are rebounding from April lows.
“I think we’re starting to see more properties come on the market as people get more acclimated,” said Marc Drapeau, a sales associate with Hourihane, Cormier & Assoc. in Rochester and 2020 president of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors.
Data from Zillow shows that the state had 883 active listings for the week ending May 15, the latest information available as The Registry Review went to press. That’s 33.2 percent off the same week in 2019, and 7.4 percent up from the second week in April, when the number of new listings plunged. It could be a sign of a delayed spring market, Drapeau said.
At the same time, the median asking price on the homes currently on the market is much higher than typical, according to Zillow, at $389,679. The statewide median single-family home sale price in April was $312,000, up 13 percent year-over-year from April 2019’s median of $275,333, according to The Warren Group, publisher of The Registry Review.
One cause, Drapeau told The Registry Review, could be an imbalance between buyer demand and supply
“It seems to be, across the state, the absorption rate seems to be at or above the rate of what’s coming on the market,” he said. “We could use more properties coming on the market, so if there is some additional inventory that would be welcome.”
Drapeau said he is seeing properties come on the market in all price ranges, with entry-level homes still “very competitive.”
“If a property is priced appropriately, we’re still seeing multiple bids and overbids,” he said.
A particularly bright spot may be the second home market in the Lakes Region. Sara Holland, broker/owner of Sara Holland & Co. in Plymouth, told an NH Realtors virtual panel discussion on May 14 that the pandemic has pushed some out-of-state buyers from big cities to relocate northward.
“We’re seeing a lot of folks who want to come here. There are people who did come up before their stay–at–home orders were in place to their second homes and their friends are seeing that’s a great idea,” she said.
In the same webinar, Coldwell Banker regional Vice President Mike Keeler presented MLS data showing that the numbers of new listings were up statewide by 37.5 percent from a low point in the week of April 5-11, although they are still off 2019 figures by nearly 31 percent. The number of homes that wend under agreement in the last two weeks of April and the first week of May soared past 2019 levels.
“I’m very encouraged by the drivers, the under-agreement activity,” he said. “Those are really optimistic charts for us to see as a state and an industry.”
With such little inventory and very motivated buyers, however, Drapeau told The Registry Review that the continuing imbalance between buyers and sellers could pose a threat to the market’s health.
“The challenge for sellers is if they’re going to make a move, where are they going to move to,” he said. “I often see the same buyers at several listings, and their agents tell me about having lost out in other multiple-offer situations. The encouraging thing is that buyers seem to be staying it the same market.”
The most challenged segment may be first-time buyers and others relying on FHA and VA loans.
“They often need contributions from the seller for closing costs, and that’s hard to compete when you’re facing a cash offer,” he said. “But we’re also beginning to see a lot of low-down-payment conventional programs out there [which could help].”
Lenders do not appear to be having difficulty with last-minute employment verification procedures necessary to secure a mortgage today, he said.
“We’re not closing in 30 days with financing but we’re not closing at 60 days, either,” he said.