At least for the time being, the debate over the proposed New Hampshire Capital Corridor Rail Project may come down to what hurts or helps it the most – the pandemic or President-elect Joe Biden. 

Debated for years and currently undergoing an extensive study, the project’s fate ultimately will hinge on its estimated costs, ridership projections, economic pluses and minuses and the level of popular and legislative support within the state for a passenger rail connection to Boston. 

But some commercial real estate figures, nervous about the rise of remote working and the partial collapse of the office market across the nation during the ongoing pandemic, are openly wondering if the proposed Manchester-Nashua-Lowell-Boston rail idea may have lost some of its luster as a result of COVID-19. 

Then again, Democrat Joe Biden, fresh off being declared the winner in the hotly contested U.S. presidential race, is expected to pursue big infrastructure and climate-change spending that could boost the rail idea in New Hampshire, assuming a Republican-controlled Senate goes along with Biden’s plans, which some say is a big question mark. 

“No one really know what’s going to happen,” E.J. Powers, head of the New Hampshire Business for Rail Expansion, says of all the new pandemic and Biden-era variables facing the Capital Corridor project. “We’ll have to see how it plays out.” 

Next Stop, Manchester 

One thing is clear: An in-depth study examining the feasibility and financing of a new commuter rail line won’t be completed for about two years, giving both sides a temporary breather to marshal their facts and arguments, pro and con, for the project. 

Backers of the project think they have a winner on their hands, pointing to a 2015 study that touted all the benefits of linking Manchester to Boston, via an extension of the MBTA’s Lowell commuter line to Nashua, the Manchester-Boston Regional Airport and ending up at Manchester’s bustling Millyard. Boosters say the line could possibly extend to Concord in the future. 

Some of the potential pluses of the project, as outlined in the five-year-old study touted by backers: 668,000 weekday riders per year, 5,600 new jobs, $750 million in new real estate investment and 3,600 new residential units, all tied to projected transit-oriented development that backers say often accompanies rail expansions in other parts of the nation. 

Polls have shown strong support for the rail project, though the average person hasn’t yet seen how much it might finally cost and who would pay for it. Early projections put the cost at approaching $250 million, with costs split 50-50 between the state and federal government, though some say the final price tag will be considerably higher. 

The Big Unknown 

Bill Norton, president of Norton Asset Management, a Manchester commercial real estate company, is skeptical about the benefits of expanded rail, especially after the COVID-19 outbreak.  

Transit-oriented development can work, but only if the ridership is there – and Norton questioned the future of commuting habits of employees amid the rise of remote working during the pandemic. Even if a coronavirus vaccine is found soon, the question is how much has commuting permanently changed as a result of the rise of Zoom and other remote-working tools that tie workers together online. 

“I’m a little leery,” said Norton of the Capital Corridor project, adding it’s a project that “refuses to die.” 

Chris Norwood, president of NAI Norwood Group, a commercial real estate firm with offices in Portsmouth and Bedford, agrees that there’s now “pre-COVID and post-COVID” ways to look at the project. 

Pre-pandemic, the project made sense: Allow people to commute back and forth between Manchester and Boston, or points in between, and both regions economically benefit. But in the post-pandemic world, there’s no way to tell how the coronavirus outbreak will impact commuting trends, Norwood said. 

“Will the same number of commuters be going to and from Boston each week?” he asked. “In the middle of the pandemic, it hard to step back and look through the lens.” 

Still, he said he doesn’t buy into the notion that offices spaces for workers is a thing of the past as a result of remote working. The question is how much office space will be needed – both in Manchester and Boston. 

Before the pandemic, Manchester’s occupancy rate stood at about 84 percent, amid concerns about Oracle Corp.’s recent downsizing of its office presence in the city’s Millyard, according to industry data. But will future remote working significantly reduce demand for city office space? No one knows. 

Still, Norwood said his gut instinct is that rail could be a key part of the state’s future transportation infrastructure, along with highways and express bus lines, and he tentatively favors expanded commuter line. 

“Having a good infrastructure is important for the economy,” he said. 

City Planning for Development 

Michael Simchik, a developer in southern New Hampshire and a principal at 100 Market Street LLC in Portsmouth, said he thinks expanded rail will help the state’s economy in general, and the Manchester and Nashua areas in particular. He noted the success of Maine’s Amtrak Downeaster rail line, and how its success could be applicable to New Hampshire’s project. 

He also noted that many young professionals simply don’t want to own cars these days, preferring to “live, work and play,” as the phrase goes, in one area with good public transit options. 

One person who definitely likes the Capital Corridor idea: Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. 

“It’s an all-around positive,” she said of the potential economic impact on the area.  

She noted that many young professionals would find Manchester a more attractive area to live and work if it had commuter rail available. And the city is working on a master plan to enable development in the area south of downtown where the train line would theoretically end. 

As for the rail commuting time between Manchester and Boston, via Nashua and Lowell, some say it would take between 1 hour and 45 minutes and 1 hour and 30 minutes, making it competitive with car travel. 

But Craig, noting that she once commuted between Manchester and Boston as a youth, said the key to commuter rail is its reliability compared to traveling by often unpredictable traffic-choked highways in the region. 

As for Biden winning the presidency, most agree the Capital Corridor definitely has a potential new friend in the White House.  

Even Norton, who is skeptical about the project in general, says a Biden victory – and potential increased infrastructure spending – “puts legs on the plan.”