Fannie Mae’s monthly survey of consumer sentiment about the housing industry contains hints that consumers may finally be getting used to the seemingly-intractable combination of high interest rates and high home prices that’s choking residential real estate markets around the country.
While high interest rates and home prices have pushed many aspiring homebuyers out of Massachusetts’ housing markets, the same forces have pushed even more prospective home sellers to sit the market out, according to local market experts. For some, the increase in monthly mortgage payments to buy the size of house they want are unaffordable; for others, the higher price tag is seen as a bad deal.
Fannie Mae’s monthly Home Purchase Sentiment Index showed nationwide consumer confidence in the housing market remained essentially flat in June. The percentage of respondents who said it was a good time to buy a home increased from 19 percent to 22 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the percentage who said it was a bad time to buy decreased from 80 percent to 78 percent.
Those sound like insignificant changes, but Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan said in a statement that he sees the inklings of hope there.
“Confidence in the housing market appears to have plateaued at a relatively low level, suggesting that many consumers may be coming to terms with elevated mortgage rates and high home prices,” he said.
In addition, he pointed out, the share of American consumers who think home prices will go up in the next 12 months slipped from 39 percent to 36 percent on a year-over-year basis and the percent who think prices will be stable rose from 33 percent to 37 percent. The percentage who think mortgage payments will go down in the next 12 months dropped from 19 percent to 16 percent year-over-year and the share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 31 percent to 36 percent.
“This seems to signal that consumers are adapting to the idea that higher mortgage rates will likely stick around for the foreseeable future. We continue to forecast home sales to slow in the second half of the year, compared to the first half, due to ongoing affordability constraints and lack of housing supply,” Duncan said.
But as if to underscore the consumer psychology problem facing the housing market, Fannie Mae’s survey also showed the share of respondents who said it was a good time to sell a home decreased from 65 percent to 64 percent in June on a year-over-year basis, while the percentage who said it was a bad time to sell increased from 34 percent to 36 percent. Month-by-month, the results mark the first decrease in consumer attitudes towards home selling since attitudes started improving in February after tumbling precipitously between May and October 2022.