Housing market-watchers are guardedly optimistic about a modestly improving statewide real estate market this spring based on recent lower interest rates, increased demand for pre-approved mortgages, and a bump upward in the number of homes for sale across the state. 

From mortgage brokers to real estate agents, industry professionals interviewed for this story stress there are plenty of uncertainties out there that could negatively upend the market in coming months, including widespread jitters about the economic impact of the Trump administration’s on-again-off-again tariff policies. 

They also say that the overall lack of inventory of homes for sale, despite the recent small increase in listings, will remain the primary impediment to a more robust, healthy market in New Hampshire. 

Still, early signs point to modest market improvements this spring. 

“I’m a little more optimistic,” said Charles Dowd, vice president and residential mortgage sales officer at Meredith Village Savings Bank. “Our phones are ringing off the hook. We have more people inquiring about mortgages. And we’re seeing a little more inventory. It’s getting busier.” 

But Chris Masiello, chairman of the Better Homes & Garden-Masiello Group, said he’s not among those expecting much change, if any, in the state’s real-estate market condition this spring. 

“Right now, our performance is dead even with last year’s numbers,” Masiello said. “Yes, there’s been a slight increase in inventory and other improvements, but not a substantial amount. This year will probably be very similar to 2024.” 

 Lower Interest Rates? 

Earlier this year, interest rates started dropping by a point or so, as stock traders unwound their positions and plunked some of their money in Treasury bonds, pushing down the interest rates on mortgage-backed securities and retail mortgage rates.  

Today’s current 30-year fixed mortgage rate is hovering in the mid- to high 6s, with the 15-year fixed rate running around 6 percent. 

Any rate improvements are welcome. But will they be enough to substantially change the market? 

Dowd said he’s not so sure.  

Today’s lower rates could induce some potential sellers – many of whom have super-low interest rates on their current homes, obtained before the 2022-2023 rise in mortgage rates – to finally put their homes on the market. 

But it will probably take another percentage-point-and-a-half fall in rates to make a somewhat significant difference, Dowd said. 

And it’s not clear whether, or by how much, the Federal Reserve, which is nervous about resurging higher inflation, will reduce its short-term rates later this year. 

Masiello said he doesn’t see the Fed cutting rates much, if at all, in 2025. 

And even if rates did fall, Masiello and others say, the lower percentages probably won’t be enough to offset the seemingly ever-higher median prices for homes in general in New Hampshire. 

Those higher home prices will not only dampen demand among many buyers but also discourage current homeowners from putting their houses on the market, brokers and bankers say. 

A Rise in Mortgage Preapprovals 

Some mortgage lenders say they’re seeing a rise in preapproval mortgage application – or, as some institutions refer to it, “pre-qualifications” of mortgages. 

Robert Derrickson, senior manager-real estate originations at Service Credit Union, said he’s seen a 20 percent year-over-year increase in pre-qualified mortgage applicants at his institution. 

The increase is partly tied to seasonal factors. But supply-and-demand market imbalances also account for the rise in applications. 

“Because sellers have the pick of offers due to multiple offers, they can demand either a cash sale or a pre-approved buyer,” Derrickson said. “Buyers are very educated on the [pre-qualification] process and are starting the financing process earlier.” 

But he noted that the “lock-in-effect” – or potential sellers who don’t want to put their homes up for sale because they have super-low, pandemic-era mortgage rates in the 3 percent range – will still limit the amount of inventory on the market. 

And that will make it tough for buyers to find available homes, even if they have pre-approved mortgages, industry officials say. 

Joseph Cipollo, a senior loan officer at CMG Home Loans, said he’s also seeing a rise in pre-approval applications, though he didn’t have exact numbers.  

“It’s only slightly ahead of last year’s preapprovals,” he said. 

Cipollo agrees that preapprovals simply don’t guarantee would-be buyers will succeed in finding and purchasing a home. 

There’s today’s stiff competition among buyers to find and reach purchase agreements – and there’s also the ever-rising prices of homes that put purchases out of reach for many would-be homeowners. 

In the past, about 6 out of 10 pre-approved buyers ultimately found homes to purchase, Cipollo said. But today, with the limited supply of homes for sale and severe affordability challenges, only two out of 10 pre-approved buyers end up actually purchasing a home, he said. 

“It just so difficult to buy these days,” he said. “It just keeps getting worse, especially for first-time homebuyers.” 

Rising For-Sale Listings 

In recent years, the number of homes for sale in New Hampshire and the U.S. have been declining, mostly due to the “lock-in-effect” that’s discouraging many from selling their abodes. 

But according to the New Hampshire Association of Realtors, the number of single-family homes for sale in the state was up 8.5 percent year-over-year in February. Meanwhile, the number of condominiums for sale was up 22.9 percent.  

Across the U.S., Redfin data shows a similar trend, with homes-for-sale listings up 7.5 percent year-over-year in late March. 

Granted, those inventory increases, both at the state and national levels, are coming off of historically low supplies of homes for sale. 

Still, the small spikes represent an improvement. But, again, are they enough to make much of a difference? 

No, said Masiello, the Masiello Group chairman.  

“There simply isn’t a major reservoir of new inventory that’s coming on the market,” he said. “Large new inventory simply doesn’t exist at this time.” 

Economic Jitters Everywhere 

There’s plenty of economic uncertainty across the nation, as inflation continues to burden and concern both consumers and businesses. 

There are also the economic unknowns tied to President Donald Trump’s controversial tariffs – and how they might further impact prices and the entire economy. 

But CMG’s Cipollo said he thinks the real-estate market has already taken such risks into consideration and adapted. 

“That could change, of course,” he said. “There are uncertainties out there, sure. But I don’t see the economic jitters changing much. Not now.” 

Masiello said the real estate market operates in its own “unique place” within the overall U.S. economy – with its main real-estate drivers today being the lack of homes for sale and the demographics of who’s buying and selling homes these days. 

“Those are the drivers – and they’re going to be the big drivers whether the economy is good or bad,” he said. “In a way, we have a very predictable housing market today. It’s pretty consistent.”