Economic disruption associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will hit the hotel sector hardest of any commercial real estate sector with nearly 35 percent of mortgages likely to default by 2024, according to an analysis released this week.

Trepp Inc. said the overall commercial loan default rate across all property sectors is likely to rise from the current 0.4 percent to 8 percent. The report analyzed 12,500 commercial real estate loans held by commercial banks.

“Travel and tourism have ground to a halt and hotels are expected to post significant declines in occupancy and revenue,” the debt researchers wrote.

Boston-based Pinnacle Advisory Group reported last week that one-fifth of the region’s hotel inventory has been shuttered by the pandemic.

Trepp’s analysis assumes that the unemployment rate will peak at 10 percent in the first quarter of 2021.

By contrast to the bleak outlook for hotels and retail, Trepp said the office sector should remain relatively unaffected in the near term and the industrial and multifamily sectors will be largely unscathed.

“Most people are spending more time in their homes, either voluntarily or by government order. And a surge in online retail is supporting demand in the industrial space,” the report said. “These sectors are not immune from a longer-term economic downturn, if that does indeed materialize.”