Data suggests real estate agents and home sellers in the Lake Winnipesaukee area can expect strong demand for second homes even as 2021 gets underway.
A new analysis of nationwide mortgage application data shows just how much demand for vacation homes has grown during the pandemic.
Using mortgage rate-lock data from real estate analytics firm Optimal Blue, Redfin economists estimate that mortgage applications for second homes soared 118 percent year-over-year in September, and demand for second-home mortgages has been up at least 80 percent on a year-over-year basis in every month from June 2020 to January 2021.
The data is in stark contrast to the already-intense demand for primary residences, which Redfin study found was up 65 percent in September on a year-over-year basis.
“Although demand is down slightly from the fall peak, the fact that nearly twice as many second-home buyers submitted applications in January as the year before means the popularity of vacation towns is not a fad,” Redfin economist Taylor Marr said in a statement. “Many Americans have realized remote work is here to stay, allowing some fortunate people to work from a lakefront cabin or ski condo indefinitely. But while many well-off remote workers are able to follow their dreams and purchase second homes, it has become even more difficult for many lower-income people to buy a primary residence as home values rise and the recession disproportionately impacts employees in the service sector.”
That demand showed up in 2020’s home prices. New Hampshire’s main vacation destination regions – Carrol, Belknap and Grafton counties – saw double-digit year-over-year percentage increases in median sale price in 2020 according to The Warren Group, publisher of The Registry Review. While much of the state saw double-digit percentage declines in the numbers of homes sold over the same period, Carroll County – home to the northern shores of Lake Winnipesaukee – saw its total annual sales rise slightly, from 867 to 873.
Some area real estate agencies have reported income jumping by 30 percent.
According to The Warren Group, the statewide median single-family price surged last year to $320,000, up 12 percent. Coos and Sullivan counties saw the biggest median sale price spikes of 27 percent and 25 percent, respectively.
“Demand is ridiculous up here,” Matt Martel, co-owner of RE/MAX Northern Edge Realty in Berlin, told The Registry Review earlier this month. “January has already started off with a bang.”
He said demand is so strong that many people and investors are now just buying vacant land in expectation of building one day.
“People are looking for a place to construct a small home,” he said. “People are just flocking to up here.”
The biggest drivers in these and other vacation spots around the country, Redfin said? The ease of remote work, homeschooling and the increasingly evident, “K-shaped” nature of the coronavirus recession that has put many working-class American’s jobs in hotels and other service jobs in jeopardy while sparing white-collar workers and even increasing the wealth of anyone with investments in the stock market.
Redfin suggests 2021 could see continued strong demand thanks to low mortgage rates: Mortgage applications for second homes were up 84 percent nation-wide in January on a year-over-year basis, compared to 36 percent increase for first home applications.
This story contains prior reporting by Jay Fitzgerald
