New Hampshire’s most remote and sparsely populated county has bragging rights as the hottest area in the state when it comes to real estate price increases since the onset of the pandemic. 

Every county in the Granite State has seen huge spikes in single-family home prices since COVID-19 hit in early 2020, with nine out of 10 counties registering median price increases of about 20 percent or more through this past spring, according to new data from The Warren Group, publisher of The Registry Review. 

Indeed, the statewide median price of a single-family home risen by about 21 percent, to $345,000, since the end of 2019, just prior to the coronavirus outbreak in early 2020. 

But the biggest price increases, spurred largely by out-of-state buyers trying to escape urban areas amid the pandemic, didn’t occur in southern counties that have traditionally led the pack when it comes to rising residential real estate values in New Hampshire. Instead, four of the top five counties that have experienced the largest price boosts through the end of May are in northern New Hampshire, in areas that traditionally have lagged past real estate trends. 

And at the top of the price-rise trend is none other than Coos County, the state’s smallest county by population (31,500 people) and where, until recently, a decent single-family home could easily be had for well under $100,000. 

Coos Jumps to $163K 

Encompassing the state’s northernmost areas, Coos County has seen a 48.6 percent rise in single-family median prices, to $163,500, through the end of May, according to Warren Group data. 

“It’s been amazing,” said Chris Capitelli, owner-broker of Exit Realty Trailblazers in Berlin. “I’ve never seen anything like this.” 

Granted, Coos County’s prices had room to grow, starting the pandemic era with single-family prices hovering around $110,000, the lowest in New Hampshire. The overall price growth is also based on only 623 total sales, a small fraction of what other counties have seen during the pandemic. 

But Coos County is nevertheless benefiting from the same pandemic-era phenomenon other counties are experiencing, said Capitelli and others: A surge in demand for houses in New Hampshire combined with low inventory of homes for sale.  

“We’re certainly seeing price increases all over the state,” said Rob Messenger, owner of Hanover-based loan originator and brokerage Legacy Mortgage LLC. 

Legacy Mortgage saw a 20 percent surge last year in both mortgage and home-refinancing loans – and it’s “darn close” to matching 2020’s frenzied pace so far this year, Messenger said. 

Vacationers and Strong Economies Fuel Growth 

Messenger’s home county, Grafton, is seeing price increases more in line with the rest of the state, with single-family home prices rising by 24.6 percent, to $272,267, according to data. Grafton has registered the fourth highest price spike since the start of the COVID-19 crisis, according to data. 

While out-of-state buyers account for some of the recent price increases in Grafton County, Messenger said the Hanover-Lebanon area’s strong economy – driven by the presence of Dartmouth College, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center and other major employers – continues to be the main driver for home sales in the region. 

That’s not the case in other counties, though. In Carroll County, home to Lake Winnipesaukee and other vacation-land attractions, it’s mostly about out-of-staters snapping up properties. 

Carroll County’s single-family home price has rocketed upward by 27 percent, to $320,167, since the start of the pandemic – with many lakefront homes selling in the millions, according to data. Carroll County’s price spike is the third highest since the onset of the pandemic. 

“People are coming up here from cities in droves,” said Randy Parker of Maxfield Real Estate in Wolfeboro. “Most sellers are opting for cash buyers only.” 

Not that southern counties are doing poorly.  

Hillsborough County, home to the cities of Manchester and Nashua, has seen median single-family prices soar by 26.3 percent, to $379,000, since the start of 2020, according to data. Hillsborough has experienced the third largest increase in home prices since the coronavirus swept through the nation. 

Indeed, Hillsborough County is home to the top five hottest towns and cities in New Hampshire, as measured by single-family price increases during the pandemic: Bedford (up 28.26 percent to $589,933), Amherst (28.25 percent to $513,000), Manchester (24.3 percent to $317,000), Merrimack (23.5 percent to $401,400) and Nashua (23.3 percent to $382,333).  

Inventory Begins to Expand 

But the price jumps in Hillsborough and other southern counties have led to an interesting development: southern residents selling off their homes and moving further north in New Hampshire. 

“They can sell a home in Nashua and then get a much bigger and better home up north and still have some money left over,” said Charles Dowd, vice president of mortgage sales at Meredith Village Savings Bank.  

Based in Belknap County, Meredith Village Savings last year saw a 40 percent increase in its overall home loan activity – and that pace is holding steady so far in 2021, said Dowd. 

But the question is: How long can the current price surge last, in all parts of New Hampshire? 

Dowd said he sees things settling down soon, especially in areas with a large number of vacation homes. The reason: People may decide to sell their homes while prices are so high, increasing the inventory of homes for sale in general. 

“It’s already started to loosen up a bit,” he said. 

Scott Godzyk, an associate broker at Allison James Estates and Homes in Manchester, also thinks the market will soon calm down, but for slightly different reasons. He thinks buyers are fed up with losing out in multiple bidding wars for homes – and they’re simply abandoning hope of buying homes in the near future. 

“There’s a lot of frustration out there, so the market is stalling,” he said. “I think the insanity of the spring market is over.” 

Maxfield Real Estate’s Parker in Wolfeboro isn’t so sure. “Properties up here are still cheap by New York and Boston standards,” he said. “And there’s still a supply problem. I just don’t see price increases stopping soon.”