It’s come to this: New Hampshire’s housing market has become such a seller’s market that even some sellers don’t want to sell these days. 

Real estate industry leaders across the state agree that that the long-term reason for escalating home prices remains a severe supply-and-demand imbalance, driven largely by a lack of new housing construction over the decades. 

But they say another factor has entered the supply-and-demand equation in recent years: Sellers balking at selling their homes because they fear they won’t be able to find a new home at an affordable price in the current seller’s market. The net result is fewer homes on the market, ever higher prices and discouraged would-be buyers and sellers alike.  

Nowhere was this more evident than in the 2021 housing market, when sales of single-family homes fell by 13 percent from 2019 to 2021, to 14,213. 

Sales of condominiums saw an even sharper decline, falling by 18 percent to 4,463 units, during the same time period, according to data from the Warren Group, publisher of The Registry Review. 

As demand for homes remained red-hot across the state, single-family home prices increased 32 percent between 2019 and 2021, and by 17 percent from 2020 to 2021, to $375,000. Condo prices surged by 31 percent and 15 percent respectively, to $245,000, during the same time periods, according to Warren Group data. 

Nowhere to Move 

Since thousands of homes across the state aren’t secretly being demolished without being replaced – thus contributing to the decline in the number of homes for sale – industry officials say the only explanation for the drop-off in sales is that many potential sellers are refusing to put their homes up for sale. 

Some of the hesitancy is attributable to the pandemic, with many potential sellers opting to stay safe in their current homes until the coronavirus scare passes.  

But the reluctance is also, if not mostly, attributable to people fearing they won’t find affordable housing alternatives if they sell in the current red-hot, highly competitive market, real estate players say.  

“In my 36 years in the business, I’ve never seen anything like it,” Bonnie Guevin, an associate at Keller Williams-Metropolitan in Bedford, said of the tight supply of inventory. “It’s been absolutely bizarre. A lot of buyers can’t find anything due to the lack of inventory. Many people just aren’t selling.” 

Among others, the hesitant sellers include empty nesters who would normally be downsizing at this time and young families who have outgrown their small first-time homes and need to upsize. 

“More people are staying put in their current homes,” said Stephen Morrissey, a broker with Alison James in Hillsborough County. “Part of the problem is that you have to go somewhere else to live if you sell your home. But affordable homes for sale are hard to find. And rents are also getting higher, so people are not leaving their homes.” 

Out-of-State Demand Strong 

Warren Group data does show other factors were influencing buying and selling trends in 2021 in New Hampshire – and some of the trends tie back to the pandemic. 

The state’s northernmost county, Coos County, saw the largest percentage increases both in the number of homes sold and median home price hike during 2019-2021, as buyers escaping more densely populated areas sought deals in more rural areas considered safer from COVID-19. 

Single-family home price in Coos County hit $170,000 in 2021, up 55 percent from 2019 and 21 percent from 2020, Warren Group data shows. 

Indeed, heightened pandemic-era demand for homes from out-of-state buyers showed few signs of subsiding in 2021, said Adam Dow, broker at Keller Williams Coastal and Lakes & Mountains Realty.  

Many out-of-staters are looking for isolated vacation homes to escape the coronavirus, while others want to move permanently to the Granite State to work remotely from home, he said.  

Even with last year’s mass-vaccination campaigns across the country, the demand for homes hasn’t lessened across the state, said Dow.  

“There’s a ton of people who want to move to New Hampshire,” he said. 

Perplexing Trends in Southeast 

Some of last year’s real estate trends have some industry experts scratching their heads, though. 

In Hillsborough and Strafford counties, for instance, the decline in the number of sold single-family homes was substantially more pronounced last year than in other areas of the state. 

Hillsborough’s overall sales fell 28 percent, to 3,163, from 2019 to 2021, compared to the statewide decline of 13 percent. Strafford County saw a 23 percent decline in sales during the same time period.  

Meanwhile, the median price for a single-family home in Strafford County was $334,967 in 2021, up 24 percent since 2019 and up 14 percent since 2020, according to The Warren Group. The median single-family home price in Hillsborough County was $406,000 in 2021, up 35 percent since 2019 and up 19 percent since 2020. 

In Hillsborough County’s Manchester, the median price for a single-family home was $340,000 in 2021, up 33 percent from 2019 and up 21 percent from 2020. Nashua’s median single-family home price was $400,000 in 2021, up 29 percent from 2019 and up 21 percent from 2020. 

Real estate observers are at a loss for why sales were so significantly off in the two counties last year, while median single-family home prices remained somewhat in line with statewide price trends, they said. 

Demand was strong for homes and condos throughout the year in the two counties – and out-of-state demand, particularly from Massachusetts residents, remained solid in 2021, they said. 

“Overall, demand has not diminished,” said Morrissey of the Manchester area housing market. “The pace of demand is still there.” 

As for 2022, market-watchers say they’re expecting more of the same. 

The market will remain highly competitive for buyers, with strong demand, low supply, multiple bids on homes, and all-cash offers trumping most other offers.  

“I don’t see any significant changes in conditions,” said Chris Masiello, head of Better Homes & Garden Real Estate-The Masiello Group, which has 37 offices in northern New England. “Interest rates may go up, but I don’t think it will hurt much. They’ll still be low by historic standards. Demand will still be high.”