New Hampshire’s biggest housing markets appear fairly well-insulated from home price declines should a market downturn take hold, a new analysis says. 

Based on gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment, ATTOM, a real estate data provider, says Rockingham, Merrimack, Strafford and Hillsborough counties rank 522nd, 536th, 537th and 555th among the 581 U.S. counties it analyzed. 

The analysis considered counties with a population of at least 100,000 and at least 50 single-family home and condo sales in the fourth quarter of 2022. 

The 50 most at-risk areas included seven counties in the Chicago metropolitan area, five in and around New York City, three in or near Cleveland, OH, and 13 spread through northern, central, and southern California. The rest were clustered mainly in other parts of the East Coast, including two of the three counties in Delaware. 

While nothing in the data suggests a looming market crash anywhere in the country, the composite rankings of the four market measures analyzed are as much as four times higher for the 50 most at-risk versus the 50 least at-risk, Rob Barber, chief executive officer at ATTOM, said in a statement provided to The Registry Review. 

“That means a greater potential for prices dropping further, which helps buyers, but damages home-seller profits, homeowner equity and household wealth. All those things have ripple effects across the economy because they affect how much households have for a myriad of things, including the purchase of a larger home or a second home, starting or expanding a business, investing in securities markets, paying college tuition or dealing with major medical expenses,” he said. “The risk gaps make the markets on the top-50 list worth an extra close watch heading into the Spring home-buying season. That is especially important this year as the U.S. housing market comes off a downturn in the second half of 2022 after 11 years of almost unrelenting price, profit and equity gains.”