NAR’s Yun Predicts Falling Rates, Rising Sales

Addressing attendees of the National Association of Realtor’s Legislative Meeting, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said he expects interest rates to fall in the long term, and that home sales will rise this year and continue to increase next year. 

There are 6 million more jobs compared to pre-COVID highs, based on the April jobs report, and jobs are boosting home prices. 

“More jobs mean more home sales and higher housing demand,” Yun told attendees of the Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum. “You need a strong local economy for a strong housing market.” 

Yun also said he expects rents to calm down further, which will hold down the consumer price index and contribute to the Federal Reserve’s planned interest rate cuts. 

“Mortgage rates are very important,” he said. “The Federal Reserve has delayed rate cuts. I would have thought that, by now, rates would be lower and rate cuts would have begun. Whatever rate cut the Federal Reserve does not do this year will simply get pushed back to 2025. They’re calling for a September rate cut, but we’ll see.” 

He also touched on housing inventory, saying, “Not all housing demand is being satisfied, due to lack of supply. We are looking at advocacy policies to counteract that.” 

“How is it that home sales can be this low when we’ve got so many people living in this country?” asked Yun. “High mortgage rates and lack of inventory were a shock. Over the next 10 years, probably eight of those 10 years will improve for home sales.”