Sooner or later, the number of homes for sale in New Hampshire will eventually recover to their old pre-COVID highs, most real estate industry observers agree.

But just don’t look for a significant inventory spike this year, starting with the all-important spring market that’s just getting underway.

After a somewhat encouraging 5 percent increase in home sales last year in the Granite State – driven partly by a much-needed upward bump in new listings – closed sales struggled through the first few months of 2026, falling by, you guessed it, 5 percent through February, according to industry data.

Granted, it was a rough winter this year, at least compared to recent warmer winters, and that harsher weather apparently discouraged some early-year sellers from putting their homes on the market in New Hampshire.

The same weather-related drop in sales this winter occurred in Massachusetts as well, according to data from The Warren Group, publisher of The Registry Review and Boston’s Banker & Tradesman.

“February just hit a sort of pause button,” said Josh Greenwald, principal broker of Greenwald Realty Group in Keene and president of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors.

“February is when you usually start to see things pick up a bit. It didn’t happen this year. But we’re starting to see listings rise again. The expectation is we’re going to see more properties come on the market soon,” he added.

Homes for Sale Cut in Half

Yet early spring data isn’t all that encouraging, with the number of homes for sale still well below pre-COVID numbers.

According to NHAR data, the 12-month rolling average of homes on the market was 2,049 in February, down from the average 4,165 average homes on the market in February 2020 and less than 20 percent of the average 11,152 homes in February 2012.

As of March 18, there were only 1,292 homes for sale statewide, a fraction of the levels achieved during the years before the pandemic.

The net result of the relentlessly tight supply of homes for sale: rising home prices. In February, the median year-to-date sale price hit $525,000, up 3.9 percent from last year.

“Inventory remains the biggest story in New Hampshire,” said Adam Dow, chief executive of Wolfeboro-based Dow Group-Keller Williams Coastal, Lakes & Mountains. “It’s what’s driving the market today. We have a supply problem.”

And it’s a two-fold supply problem: a continued lack of new housing construction compounded by many sellers hesitating to put their residences on the market amid rising home prices and lack of alternative properties for them to buy.

The result: a sluggish sales picture heading into the spring market.

“I’m not seeing any great improvement in inventory,” said Joannie McIntire, an associate broker at Coldwell Banker J. Hampe Associates in Concord. “On any given day, inventory is still low.”

Starter-Home Competition

That low level is keeping in place a seller’s market, but at least it’s a more tempered seller’s market compared to years past, thanks partly to the very modest increases in new listings of late.

Industry figures interviewed for this story said that buyers are no longer forgoing home inspections and making other concessions in a desperate attempt to purchase properties.

Potential buyers are also more cautious when it comes to bidding on higher-priced homes, agents said.

But it’s still a competitive real estate market in general, particularly for smaller starter homes.

McIntire noted that she recently brought a potential buyer to a showing of a two-bedroom home in Concord listed at $389,000, below the state median price of $525,000.

“There had to be 40 people there,” she said. “It was packed.”

While demand for higher-priced homes isn’t as great, McIntire said high-end homes that are in good physical condition, well located and priced right will still command strong interest.

She noted that a home in Hopkinton, just west of Concord, was recently listed at $1.1 million – and drew three strong offers.

No Optimism for Extra Inventory

As for the coming spring market, McIntire said she’s expecting to represent a “good smattering” of home sellers listing their properties at varying price levels.

Yet, she doesn’t think it will be a significantly improved inventory picture this year.

“We need more supply,” she said “And we really need more single-family units in particular. That’s what we need.”

McIntire, the former president of the NHAR, said she’s encouraged that the state is pushing hard to boost housing construction in New Hampshire.

She also noted that lenders seem more open to financing construction of smaller single-family residences, such as so-called “cottage court” homes and accessory dwelling units.

“The good news is people are talking more seriously about ways to increase housing construction,” she said. “But we have a long way to go.”

Greenwald agreed that there’s encouraging signs that new housing construction may be picking up.

In particular, he pointed out the city of Keene’s recent aggressive push to build more “cottage court” units – smaller and more densely-packed single-family homes and townhouses that still look and feel like traditional neighborhoods.

“We’re headed in the right direction,” said Greenwald of new housing initiatives. “But it’s going to take many, many years to get to where we need to be.”

Dow, of the Dow Group-Keller Williams, said the overall real estate market seems to be constantly sending mixed signals – encouraging news one month, discouraging news the next.

“I feel like the market wants to get going, but it can’t,” he said.

“We keep getting news that makes people pause [on buying or selling]. There’s a little bit of the deer-caught-in-the-headlights going on. There’s a lot of uncertainty.”