There are some hopeful signs that New Hampshire’s real estate market may improve ever so slightly in 2025.

No one is predicting dramatic real-estate market changes in the coming year, due largely to the long-standing problems of not enough homes for sale across the state and not enough new homes being built.

But industry leaders and market-watchers say they’re nonetheless encouraged by data showing that home sales and new listings actually increased statewide in 2024 – and most signs point to that trend continuing into 2025.

Meanwhile, those same experts also say they’re hopeful a new Republican governor, Kelly Ayotte, and an expanded GOP majority in the Legislature can work together to more aggressively address the lack of housing construction in New Hampshire.

And the prospect of further Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts later this year, on top of last year’s rate cuts, could further help the state’s real estate market, officials say.

“New Hampshire is in pretty good shape,” said Adam Dow, chief executive of the Dow Group at Keller Williams in Wolfeboro. “Things started picking up late last year. Business seems faster now than it did this time last year, much faster.”

Not everyone agrees.

“Sadly, I don’t see a lot of change – not with inventory still so low,” said Susan Bradley, associate broker at Coldwell Banker Realty in Gilford. “The lack of inventory is still the big problem.”

From closed sales to interest rates to new leaders in Concord, following are some of the trends and issues industry officials expect to see in the coming year.

Sales and Listings

According to the New Hampshire Association of Realtors, there was a welcome increase in home listings in 2024, after a long period of falling deal counts and homes on the market.

New listings were also up last year, by 7.5 percent, to 14,548.

Closed single-family sales were up down 5.48 percent through Nov. 30 compared to 2023, according to the most recent data from The Warren Group, publisher of The Registry Review.

And no surprise at all due to the huge home supply-and-demand imbalance in New Hampshire: The median single-family home price continued to climb last year, by 10.68 percent, to $487,000, The Warren Group reported.

Though sales and listing numbers remain at historically low levels, last year’s increases nevertheless leave some industry officials hopeful that deal activity will continue to pick up in 2025.

New Leaders in Concord

Industry figures interviewed for this story don’t expect radical policy changes from the incoming Ayotte administration and from the GOP-dominated legislature.

But housing was a major issue in last year’s state elections – and many believe Ayotte, who succeeds Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, and GOP lawmakers will be under added pressure to pass legislation designed to boost housing construction across the state.

“We’re excited something might get done,” said Susan Cole, the 2025 president of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors and owner of Susan Cole Realty in Lebanon.

Cole said zoning changes at the local level, where there’s no shortage of opposition to new housing, need to be addressed by lawmakers in Concord.

“We need to get beyond NIMBY opposition,” Dow said.  “I’m excited about Concord helping with new housing.”

Interest Rate Uncertainty

What happens to mortgage interest rates in 2025 is up in the air.

After cutting short-term rates last autumn for the first time in a few years, the Federal Reserve was expected to approve more cuts early this year.

But then new cost-of-living data came out in late 2024 suggesting that inflation wasn’t under as much control as previously thought, thus diminishing the chance of another Fed rate cut anytime soon.

Earlier this month, strong U.S. jobs numbers for December added to concerns that the Fed might balk at further rate cuts – at least for the time being.

Those same jobs numbers and Fed policymakers’ worries are increasing bond traders’ own fears about the 2025 economy and sending mortgage rates up, according to Wall Street analysts.

Coldwell Banker’s Bradley said she doesn’t see interest rates, one way or the other, being a major market factor in 2025.

Lower mortgage rates might encourage some buyers to reenter the real estate market – and higher rates might discourage some buyers from entering the market, she noted.

Dave Smith, owner of Harbor Light Realty in Sunapee, agreed interest rates won’t influence his lake-and-mountain area much.

Interest rates might matter to some first-time homebuyers, but the Sunapee market is dominated by more affluent buyers looking for second homes. And they’re not as concerned about small changes in interest rates, he said.

Agent Commissions

One of the biggest industry issues last year concerned changes to agent commissions, the result of the landmark settlement of antitrust lawsuits filed against the National Association of Realtors.

Under new rules implemented last year, seller and buyer commission agreements must now be negotiated separately, as opposed to the old practice of usually splitting commissions between listing and buyer agents, as agreed upon by the seller of a home.

Last year’s separation of commission negotiations now means buyer agents are largely on their own today – and that’s creating more than a little confusion and buyer-agent angst.

All in all, Cole, the president of the New Hampshire Association of Realtors, said she’s pleased with how smoothly the changes went last year.

“I’m not hearing that much about it right now,” she said. “I feel like we crossed that [new commission] threshold last year.”

But Smith of Harbor Light said he sees continued confusion over last year’s commission changes.

“People used to know and understand” how agents were paid under old commission rules, said Smith. “The new rules have just added more layers to everything. You have to make more calls. You have to explain things more. It’ll be an issue for a while.”