Zillow Survey Suggests Vaccines Will Increase For-Sale Inventory – But There’s a Catch


A national survey by Zillow suggests a successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout could help ease the inventory crunch blamed for the rapid run-up in home prices.

While only about half of homeowners say they would be more comfortable moving to a new home right now despite the real estate industry’s efforts to convey the safety of the current home-sales process, about 70 percent say they would be game after much of the population gets vaccinated. And among homeowners who said the vaccine would impact their decision to sell, 78 percent said they expect it will make them more likely to move.

The increase, Zillow estimates, would translate to an additional 14 million homes across the country that could come on the market.

Not all of those homes may be located in the suburban neighborhoods that have been the focus of much recent demand as Millennials with young families look for larger homes. The survey found that 25 percent of urban homeowners said widespread vaccination would influence their decision to move, compared to only 9 percent of suburban owners and 7 percent of rural owners, Zillow population scientist Manny Garcia said.

And vaccine distribution appears to be less important to potential move-down and empty-nester buyers: Only 10 percent of Baby Boomer and Silent Generation homeowners said it would impact their decision to move, while 15 percent of Generation X homeowners and 25 percent of Millennial and Generation Z homeowners said the same thing.

In addition to health concerns, the Zillow survey found that homeowners are feeling more certain about their life circumstances and financial situation, with the number who reported things were “too uncertain” declined from 29 percent to 25 percent.

“We expect that the vaccine rollout will likely boost inventory, as sellers become increasingly willing to move despite Covid-19 – resulting in greater numbers of new listings beginning this spring,” Chris Glynn, principal economist at Zillow, said in a statement. “That injection of inventory could give buyers more options and breathing room in a competitive market. The vaccine, however, will also likely add to already-strong demand, given that most sellers will become buyers as they trade in for a home that better suits their new needs.”

Only 944 single-family homes hit the market statewide last month, according to the New Hampshire Association of Realtors. That’s a 12.8 percent decline compared to January 2020, but a 16.69 percent increase over December.

But the total number of single-family houses for sale across New Hampshire dropped by 12.7 percent from December to January, NHAR reported, to 1,207, even as the average number of days a home spent on the market rose from 33 to 38 over the same period. The number of months’ supply on the market right now is 0.7 months, down from 0.9 in December and the lowest the state has seen since the COVID-19 pandemic began.